Best Picture:
Will win- Gravity
Could win- 12 Years a Slave
Listen, the only time I've been in the 12 Years a Slave camp was for the BAFTAs, everywhere else I've been predicting Gravity (or Hustle for SAG). Now that we've seen ballot reports, a lot have Gravity over 12 Years with some even saying the only reason they voted 12YAS was because they would feel bad if they didn't. However, Gravity is going to win this for a lot of reasons. It has mass appeal, will be very nostalgic to some voters, and even if it wasn't the voter's favorite movie it'll still be high up on the ballot, which it what you need to win. Remember, this is the movie that was filled to capacity at every screening the Academy held for voters, so it's clear they like it a lot. You see, since the Academy uses preferential voting, the 2nd place votes will matter a lot. Here's a good explanation:
Again, even if Gravity wasn't the voter's favorite movie, because mostly every member has seen it and obviously liked it, the support is there. If 12YAS wins, it'll be because of the topic, not because it was their favorite movie. Support matters, and Gravity has lots of it.
Best Director:
Will win- Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Could win- n/a
Alfonso Cuaron has swept every directing award, he's one of the night's few locks.
Best Actor:
Will win- Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Could win- Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
This one's a toughie. These are both movies that overperformed in nominations and the roles of their careers. However, I'm going to go with Leo on this one since he's long overdue and McConaughey only just started redefining his career. Either win wouldn't be a surprise at all.
Best Actress:
Will win- Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Could win- n/a
Another lock.
Best Supporting Actor:
Will win- Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Could win- n/a
Yet another lock.
Best Supporting Actress:
Will win- Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Could win- Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
Here's the thing: supporting actress is normally a field where they like to award newcomers, but Jennifer won the Globes and BAFTA while Lupita won SAG and Critic's Choice. Since the BAFTAs were during voting, I'm leaning towards Jennifer, but don't be surprised if either win.
Best Original Screenplay
Will win- Spike Jonze, Her
Could win- Eric Singer and David O Russell, American Hustle
Her needs to win this, and it likely will. This screenplay was original on every level, blended comedy and drama together perfectly, and made even the smallest moments the best (which is what makes Her so great), and considering it won at WGA and the Globes where Screenplay is just one category (ineligible at BAFTA), all signs point to Her.
Best Adapted Screenplay:
Will win- Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope, Philomena
Could win- John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave
Here's a category that's been up in the air everywhere. Out of the major persecurors, 12 Years a Slave won Critic's Choice, Captain Phillips won WGA, and Philomena won BAFTA. Since the Academy pretty much rejected Captain Phillips it's out of the equation. Before Midnight and Wolf of Wall Street could happen but it's pretty unlikely, so it's down to 12 Years vs Philomena, and I'm going with the latter. Why? Harvey Weinstein and BAFTA. Everyone knows how powerful Harvey is, and considering BAFTA was during the voting period voters could have been influenced to switch to Philomena.
Best Foreign Language Film:
Will win- The Great Beauty
Could win- The Hunt
The Great Beauty is pretty much a near lock, but what if the Academy decided to go to crowd favorite The Hunt? Something to keep in mind.
Best Animated Film:
Will win- Frozen
Could win- n/a
It's a lock.
Best Documentary:
Will win- The Act of Killing
Could win- 20 Feet From Stardom
I have no idea how the sudden surge for 20 Feet From Stardom happened, before then everybody was saying The Act of Killing would win. I'm still going with AOK, but wouldn't it be funny if we were overestimating these and The Square ends up winning due to Netflix?
Best Original Song:
Will win- The Moon Song, Her
Could win- Let it Go, Frozen
That's right, The Moon Song. I know some aren't predicting Let it Go in favor of Ordinary Love and Happy, but man oh man are you guys underestimating The Moon Song. It plays a part in the movie and it's charming and calm. Let it Go's biggest issue is that Disney is shoving this song down our throats. It's a good song, but it's not the best in the movie let alone this category. The Moon Song is my no guts no glory prediction of the year.
Now that we have the categories where I need to comment on, let's go to some more minor categories:
Best Cinematography- Emmanuel Lubezki, Gravity
Best Editing- Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Best Production Design- Gravity (alt. The Great Gatsby or Her)
Best Costume Design- 12 Years a Slave (alt. The Great Gatsby)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling- Dallas Buyers Club
Best Score- Steven Price, Gravity (alt. Arcade Fire, Her)
Best Sound Editing- Gravity
Best Sound Mixing- Gravity
Best Visual Effects- Gravity (alt. The Lone R.... haha I couldn't say that with a straight face!)
Best Animated Short- Get a Horse!
Best Live Action Short- The Voorman Problem
Best Documentary Short- The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life
Thanks for reading! As always, follow me on Twitter @ThemeParks4Life
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