It's that time of year again! The Oscar nominations come out tomorrow, and man will this be an exciting race. I'm predicting some interesting surprises and snubs. Let's dig in!
Picture:
1. Boyhood
2. Birdman
3. The Grand Budapest Hotel
4. The Imitation Game
5. The Theory of Everything
6. Whiplash
7. Gone Girl
8. Nightcrawler
9. American Sniper
Spoilers: Selma, Foxcatcher
I'm predicting 9 nominees for Picture, because until it happens I can't see the Academy going lower or giving the 10th spot. The 4 locks are Boyhood, Birdman, Budapest, and Imitation Game. They've all been nominated at the precursors and all have a chance at winning Best Picture.
Going into likely territory is The Theory of Everything and Whiplash. Theory of Everything has done extremely well at precursors and Whiplash got it's fair share of BAFTA nominations in addition to WGA and JK Simmons being the overwhelming frontrunner for Supporting Actor.
The last 3 are a bit more up in the air, but likely nominations. Gone Girl has been one of the most talked about movies for the past few months and should do well in technical categories. Nightcrawler has been gaining tons of buzz lately thanks to Jake Gyllenhaal getting in at the Globes and SAG and the film doing well in nominations at BAFTA. American Sniper has been surprising at the guilds, getting into everything but SAG.
The spoilers are Selma and Foxcatcher. While Selma got a good amount of nominations at the Globes, it's done terrible everywhere else. SAG and WGA are excluded since screeners didn't go out in time for SAG and it was ineligible at WGA, but there was no excuse as to why it couldn't have been nominated at PGA or DGA. Given that there's overlap between the guilds and the Academy, Selma is going to have a tough time getting in. Foxcatcher has an outside chance thanks to potential acting nominations, but it's buzz has been on the decline.
Director:
1. Richard Linklater, Boyhood
2. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman
3. Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
4. Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game
5. Damien Chazelle, Whiplash
Spoilers: Clint Eastwood, American Sniper; David Fincher, Gone Girl; Ava DuVernay, Selma
The first 3 are locked, but the last 2 spots are questionable. Tyldum has the benefit of getting in at DGA and Imitation Game being a Weinstein film but could easily get snubbed. Chazelle is a bit of a risky prediction, but having been nominated at BAFTA puts a bit more stock into the prediction. With American Sniper on the rise and having a DGA nomination Eastwood isn't out of the question, Fincher might surprise, and if Selma has support DuVernay could likely be in.
Actor:
1. Michael Keaton, Birdman
2. Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
3. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
4. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler
5. Bradley Cooper, American Sniper
Spoilers: Steve Carell, Foxcatcher (if placed here); David Oyelowo, Selma; Ralph Fiennes, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Just like director, the first 3 are locked but the last two are a bit tricky. Gyllenhaal is likely having gotten in at all precursors, and Cooper has the benefit of American Sniper on the rise. Carell has been losing buzz, though he got into Supporting at BAFTA so it's possible he's placed there (I'm predicting it). Oyelowo could get in if Selma is liked and Fiennes might ride along Budapest's nomination count.
Actress:
1. Julianne Moore, Still Alice
2. Reese Witherspoon, Wild
3. Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
4. Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
5. Amy Adams, Big Eyes
Spoiler: Jennifer Anniston, Cake
The first four are locked, so it's really the fifth spot that needs discussing. Most agree it's between Adams and Anniston, and they both have things going for them. Anniston was able to get into SAG, while Adams got into BAFTA and has Weinstein behind her (not to mention a Globe win, but that was after voting for the Oscars closed). Right now I'm going with Adams, but I wouldn't be surprised if Anniston made it in.
Supporting Actor:
1. JK Simmons, Whiplash
2. Edward Norton, Birdman
3. Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
4. Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
5. Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
Spoilers: Robert Duvall, The Judge; Josh Brolin, Inherent Vice
I'm going out on a limb and saying Steve Carell makes it in here and not Actor, especially given the competition in Actor. If he doesn't make it in or voters decide to have only one Foxcatcher actor here, Duvall will take the 5th spot. Or who knows, maybe Inherent Vice resonated well with the Academy and Brolin gets in.
Supporting Actress:
1. Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
2. Emma Stone, Birdman
3. Kiera Knightley, The Imitation Game
4. Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
5. Rene Russo, Nightcrawler
Spoiler: Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year
In my opinion, the first four are locked. Quite a bit have been predicting a Streep snub, but come on, it's Meryl Streep; she's getting in. The fifth spot is between Russo and Chastain, and I'm going with the former since Nightcrawler has been gaining traction lately. However, Chastain has the advantage of being in so many movies this year voters just might want to nominate her.
Original Screenplay:
1. Birdman
2. Boyhood
3. The Grand Budapest Hotel
4. Nightcrawler
5. Foxcatcher
Spoiler: Selma
At this point it's a matter of Foxcatcher vs Selma for the 5th spot, and like I've said before, Selma is going to have a tough time getting in after the guild snubs. Foxcatcher has the advantage here.
Adapted Screenplay:
1. The Imitation Game
2. Whiplash
3. Gone Girl
4. The Theory of Everything
5. American Sniper
This is the only category I'm 100% confident in. I firmly believe this will be the Adapted Screenplay lineup.
Animated Feature:
1. The LEGO Movie
2. How to Train Your Dragon 2
3. Big Hero 6
4. The Boxtrolls
5. The Tale of the Princess Kaguya
Spoilers: The Book of Life; Song of the Sea
Lego, Dragon, and Big Hero 6 are locks, and Boxtrolls is likely; the fifth spot is the tough one. Kaguya has the highest score on Metacritic between it and the spoilers, so that's my 5th spot right now. Book of Life benefits from a Globe nomination while Song of the Sea has excellent reviews.
Best Foreign Film:
1. Ida
2. Levithan
3. Force Majeure
4. Wild Tales
5. Tangerines
Best Documentary:
1. Citizenfour
2. Life Itself
3. Last Days in Vietnam
4. Virunga
5. The Case Against 8
Cinematography:
1. Birdman
2. Interstellar
3. Gone Girl
4. The Grand Budapest Hotel
5. Mr Turner
Spoilers: Unbroken; The Imitation Game; Nightcrawler
Costume Design:
1. Into the Woods
2. The Grand Budapest Hotel
3. Maleficent
4. Mr Turner
5. The Imitation Game
Spoilers: Big Eyes; Belle
Editing:
1. Boyhood
2. Birdman
3. Interstellar
4. Gone Girl
5. Whiplash
Spoilers: The Grand Budapest Hotel; The Imitation Game
Makeup and Hairstyling:
1. Foxcatcher
2. Guardians of the Galaxy
3. The Grand Budapest Hotel
Spoilers: The Theory of Everything; Maleficent
Production Design:
1. The Grand Budapest Hotel
2. Into the Woods
3. Birdman
4. Interstellar
5. The Imitation Game
Spoilers: Mr Turner; Maleficent
Score:
1. Interstellar
2. Gone Girl
3. The Theory of Everything
4. The Grand Budapest Hotel
5. The Imitation Game
Spoiler: Unbroken
Song:
1. Selma- Glory
2. The LEGO Movie- Everything is Awesome
3. Big Eyes- Big Eyes
4. Begin Again- Lost Stars
5. Boyhood- Split the Difference
Spoilers: Noah- Mercy Is; The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1- Yellow Flicker Beat
Sound Editing:
1. Interstellar
2. Fury
3. Guardians of the Galaxy
4. Whiplash
5. American Sniper
Spoilers: Unbroken; Birdman; Into the Woods
Sound Mixing:
1. Interstellar
2. Into the Woods
3. Whiplash
4. American Sniper
5. Birdman
Spoilers: Unbroken; Guardians of the Galaxy; Fury
Visual Effects:
1. Interstellar
2. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
3. Guardians of the Galaxy
4. The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
5. Captain America: The Winter Soldier
Spoilers: X-Men: Days of Future Past; Godzilla; Transformers: Age of Extinction
Animated Short:
1. Feast
2. Duet
3. The Bigger Picture
4. Coda
5. Symphony No. 42
Documentary Short:
1. The Lion's Mouth Opens
2. Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1
3. Joanna
4. One Child
5. Our Curse
Live Action Short:
1. Carry On
2. Boogaloo and Graham
3. The Phone Call
4. Aya
5. Baghdad Messi
Films with multiple nominations:
10- Birdman (Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Sound Mixing)
8- The Grand Budapest Hotel (Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Production Design, Score), The Imitation Game (Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design, Production Design, Score)
7- Boyhood (Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Editing, Song),Whiplash (Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Editing, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing), Interstellar (Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Score, Visual Effects, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing)
6- Gone Girl (Picture, Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Score),
5- The Theory of Everything (Picture, Actor, Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Score), American Sniper (Picture, Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing)
4- Nightcrawler (Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay), Foxcatcher (Supporting Actor (both Carell and Ruffalo), Original Screenplay, Makeup and Hairstyling), Into the Woods (Supporting Actress, Costume Design, Production Design, Sound Mixing)
3- Guardians of the Galaxy (Makeup and Hairstyling, Visual Effects, Sound Editing)
2- Big Eyes (Actress, Song), The LEGO Movie (Animated, Song), Mr Turner (Cinematography, Costume Design)
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