Wednesday, July 9, 2014

2014 Emmy Nomination Predictions

It's hard to believe that on Thursday this year's Emmy nominations will finally be announced. It was a great season for television, and hopefully the Academy chooses wisely. Read on for my predictions!

TV Movie/Miniseries Categories 

TV Movie:

1. The Normal Heart
2. The Trip to Bountiful
3. Clear History
4. Sherlock: His Last Vow
5. Killing Kennedy


1. Fargo
2. American Horror Story: Coven
3. Dancing on the Edge
4. The White Queen
5. Luther

Lead Actor:

1. Martin Freeman, Fargo
2. Billy Bob Thorton, Fargo
3. Mark Ruffalo, The Normal Heart
4. Chiwetel Ejiofor, Dancing on the Edge
5. Benedict Cumberbatch, Sherlcok: His Last Vow
6. Idris Elba, Luther

Lead Actress:

1. Cicely Tyson, The Trip to Bountiful
2. Jessica Lange, American Horror Story: Coven
3. Helena Bonham Carter, Burton and Taylor
4. Whoopi Goldberg, A Day Late and a Dollar Short
5. Sarah Paulson, American Horror Story: Coven
6. Rebecca Ferguson, The White Queen

Supporting Actor:

1. Matt Bomer, The Normal Heart
2. Martin Freeman, Sherlock: His Last Vow
3. John Goodman, Dancing on the Edge
4. Colin Hanks, Fargo
5. Blair Underwood, The Trip to Bountiful
6. Alfred Molina, Return to Zero

Supporting Actress:

1. Allison Tolman, Fargo
2. Kathy Bates, American Horror Story: Coven
3. Julia Roberts, The Normal Heart
4. Angela Bassett, American Horror Story: Coven
5. Jacqueline Bissett, Dancing on the Edge
6. Audra McDonald, The Sound of Music Live


1. Fargo
2. The Normal Heart
3. Dancing on the Edge
4. Sherlock: His Last Vow
5. Clear History


1. Fargo
2. The Normal Heart
3. Clear History
4. Dancing on the Edge
5. The Trip to Bountiful

Comedy Categories


1. Modern Family
2. Louie
3. Brooklyn Nine-Nine
4. Orange is the New Black
5. Veep
6. The Big Bang Theory
Spoilers: Silicon Valley; Girls

As of now Modern Family is poised to win again, but I think Louie, Brooklyn Nine-Nine, or Veep could easily dethrone it. Orange is the New Black, while good, has major category fraud and Big Bang Theory hasn't gotten a directing and writing nod in it's 6 year history. While it's true Veep hasn't gotten them either, it's in a good spot to get a writing nomination this year. If it doesn't get nominated there, consider it out of luck for a win. Louie is loved by the Academy and is in a good spot to win like last year. Brooklyn is the real dark horse here, and I think it's being underestimated. Remember that since 30 Rock and The Office are gone, that audience is going here (Parks and Rec didn't have a good enough season to be in contention). If Silicon surprises on Thursday and gets a bunch of nominations, it could be in contention too.

Comedy Actor:

1. Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory
2. Louis CK, Louie
3. Andy Samberg, Brooklyn Nine-Nine
4. Thomas Middleditch, Silicon Valley
5. Matt LeBlanc, Episodes
6. Don Cheadle, House of Lies
Spoiler: William H Macy, Shameless

With Alec Baldwin gone and Jason Bateman not eligible, this category got a whole lot weaker. Fortunately instead of this being between Parsons and CK, Samberg is a strong new contender and I think he'll win this next month. Thomas Middleditch is being overlooked which surprises me. William H Macy or Robin Williams are getting the majority of sixth place predictions, but let's not forget that Macy is on a show the Academy has overlooked for years and Williams is on a cancelled show.

Comedy Actress:

1. Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
2. Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation
3. Taylor Schilling, Orange is the New Black
4. Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
5. Lena Dunham, Girls
6. Mindy Kaling, The Mindy Project
Spoiler: Anna Faris, Mom

Let's go back to last year where Julia Louis-Dreyfus was the big frontrunner with Amy Poehler, Tina Fey, and Laura Dern being spoilers. Remove Fey and Dern and you have this year's Comedy Actress category. The 3rd-5th slots will be Schilling, Falco, and Dunham but the 6th spot is where everybody's split. Most either have Mindy Kaling, Anna Faris, or Emmy Rossum. For the longest time I've had Faris there, but I switched to Kaling about 2 weeks ago. Kaling's buzz was rising in the voting period and it was announced she'll be announcing the nominees with Carson Daly. Normally at least one of the presenters is nominated, so I'm taking a risk and predicting her.

Supporting Actor:

1. Andre Braugher, Brooklyn Nine-Nine
2. Tony Hale, Veep
3. Ty Burrell, Modern Family
4. Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family
5. Adam Driver, Girls
6. Ed O'Neil, Modern Family
Spoilers: Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family; Joe Lo Truglio, Brooklyn Nine-Nine; Taran Killam, Saturday Night Live; Timothy Simmons, Veep

The first 4 are locked, but 5th and 6th are the tricky ones. I considered putting in Stonestreet and removing Driver, and I had Truglio in for a bit instead of O'Neil. Taran Killam is a dark horse since Bill Hader is now gone and he's become the go to cast member of SNL. If voters really liked this season of Veep Timothy Simmons is a good possibility. Regarding who will win this, I think Braugher is the big frontrunner. He has an episode where he gives a speech and has one of the show's funniest moments.

Supporting Actress:

1. Allison Janney, Mom
2. Kate Mulgrew, Orange is the New Black
3. Julie Bowen, Modern Family
4. Merritt Wever, Nurse Jackie
5. Mayim Bialik, The Big Bang Theory
6. Sofia Vegara, Modern Family
Spoiler: Anna Chlumsky, Veep

For the longest time I didn't have Sofia Vegara in my predictions, but today I took Chlumsky out and put her in. If Modern Family will fivepeat (if that's a word), I don't think they'll be losing another nominee. Regarding who will win, it's going to be Janney or Mulgrew (they tied at Critic's Choice, not that it means anything).


1. Pilot, Brooklyn Nine-Nine
2. Las Vegas, Modern Family
3. Elevator Part 6, Louie
4. Can't Fix Crazy, Orange is the New Black
5. Pilot, Silicon Valley

Brooklyn Nine-Nine will likely follow the tradition that Drama has the past few years with Boardwalk Empire and House of Cards where the big name directed pilot wins. Phil Lord and Chris Miller directed the pilot of B99, and considering pilots almost always win as of lately in Comedy it makes perfect sense for them to win. If they don't win, it'll be Modern Family. I'm curious if instead of the finale to OITNB getting in Lesbian Request Denied gets in since Jodie Foster directed that episode.


1. So Did the Fat Lady, Louie
2. Can't Fix Crazy, Orange is the New Black
3. The Bet, Brooklyn Nine-Nine
4. Special Relationship, Veep
5. Moving Up, Parks and Recreation
Spoiler: Episodes

I think Louie has this locked up. So Did the Fat Lady was an episode that got everyone talking with the "you're not fat" speech:

That right there is enough reason for it to win writing. Not only that, but the rest is also a great episode. OITNB and Brooklyn Nine-Nine are locked up here, Veep will likely break through this year, and Parks and Rec could break in with the finale. Or they could be boring and put in Episodes, there's that too.

Comedy Guest Actor:

1. Jeremy Renner, Louie
2. Jimmy Fallon, SNL
3. Bob Newhart, The Big Bang Theory
4. James Earl Jones, The Big Bang Theory
5. Pablo Schreiber, Orange is the New Black
6. Stephen Merchant, Modern Family
Spoilers; Nathan Lane, Modern Family; Louis CK, SNL

This is a tough category to predict and definitely isn't as easy as last year. Not only do we have Bob Newhart again, but Jeremy Renner, Jimmy Fallon, James Earl Jones, and Pablo Schreiber on the radar too. Out of these 5 I think Jeremy Renner will win, but he's the least comedic of the bunch. There's also the off chance a Modern Family guy, Louis CK, or someone else sneaks up and wins it, but it's unlikely.

Comedy Guest Actress:

1. Ellen Burstyn, Louie
2. Melissa McCarthy, SNL
3. Tina Fey, SNL
4. Uzo Aduba, Orange is the New Black
5. Octavia Spencer, Mom
6. Sarah Baker, Louie
Spoilers: Joan Cusack, Shameless; Kathy Bates, Mike and Molly

Burstyn has this locked up. Unfortunately her role isn't that great, but the guest categories are Name Check Lane and she won last year in Movie/Mini Supporting Actress. Aduba and Baker's biggest obstacles are that they're unknow names, but considering how noticed they were by critics they could get in.

Drama Categories


1. Breaking Bad
2. True Detective
3. House of Cards
4. Game of Thrones
5. Masters of Sex
6. The Americans
Spoilers: Mad Men; The Good Wife

Everyone knows Breaking Bad will win again and that True Detective, House of Cards, and Game of Thrones are locked. The last 2 are where it gets tricky, but I'm going with Masters of Sex and The Americans. Masters of Sex is a newcomer and a Showtime show has been nominated every year for the past few years. Considering the season Homeland had and the way Showtime is campaigning, Masters of Sex is the likeliest. The Americans didn't break big last year, but I think this is it's year. This season was much better and more buzzed. The Good Wife might be able to get back in, but it's been losing nominations every year. I'm taking a risk here by not having Mad Men, but I took it out here and other categories since buzz is fading and, like The Good Wife, it's been losing nominations.


1. Matthew McConaughey, True Detective
2. Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
3. Kevin Spacey, House of Cards
4. Woody Harrelson, True Detective
5. Michael Sheen, Masters of Sex
6. Jon Hamm, Mad Men
Spoilers: James Spader, The Blacklist; Jeff Daniels, The Newsroom; Matthew Rhys, The Americans

With the McConaissance (however the hell you spell it) going on, McConaughey is locked and is the frontrunner. However, it's largely going to come down to what he submits. The main categories don't name check like Movie/Mini and the Guest categories do, so he has to submit wisely. If Woody Harrelson gets in (which is very likely), he'll benefit from two tapes. Cranston is still in contention, but McConaughey has the advantage. I wouldn't discount Harrelson's chances either; he's just as good as McConaughey and Cranston. Sheen and Hamm are likely bets to get in, but James Spader could sneak up and take one of those spots. As for Jeff Daniels, he won last year solely based on his submission. He's most likely a one and done like Jon Cryer a couple of years ago.


1. Robin Wright, House of Cards
2. Claire Danes, Homeland
3. Kerry Washington, Scandal
4. Keri Russell, The Americans
5. Vera Farmiga, Bates Motel
6. Lizzy Caplan, Masters of Sex
Spoilers: Julianna Marguiles, The Good Wife; Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men; Tatiana Maslany, Orphan Black

After the big mess this category was last year, hopefully things get back on track. Robin Wright is the frontrunner, but plenty could steal the win. Danes and Washington are locked, but the rest have a bumpy road. Russell will likely get in with The Americans' increased buzz, even if it doesn't get a series nod. Farmiga has diminished buzz, but considering she was in the upper half of contenders last year I think she'll make it in again. Caplan will likely be part of the Masters of Sex wave, but it wouldn't surprise me if she was left off. Marguiles' biggest obstacle is the same as TGW in series: it's a show that keeps on losing nominations, and she was snubbed last year. If there's 7 nominees again, we'll certainly see her in here.

Supporting Actor:

1. Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad
2. Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones
3. Dean Norris, Breaking Bad
4. Jim Carter, Downton Abbey
5. Josh Charles, The Good Wife
6. Jeffrey Wright, Boardwalk Empire
Spoilers: Mandy Patinkin, Homeland; Charles Dance, Game of Thrones

It's between Paul and Dinklage for the win, but I think Paul has the advantage. His likely submission "Confessions" has more impact than either of Dinklage's two probable ones. However, if Charles Dance gets in he'll certainly benefit from two tapes. Norris is a lock to get in, but the remaining three are up in the air. Jim Carter still gets in year after year to everyone's surprise, and I don't think that's changing this year. Josh Charles was probably The Good Wife's most buzzed actor this year, and I think the buzz here is good enough to get him back in. Jeffrey Wright benefits from being an Emmy favorite and is on the show that won this category last year. Mandy Patinkin is in a bit of trouble, though. He wasn't nominated for Homeland's first season, and considering the drop in quality of this season he's in a good spot to get snubbed.

Supporting Actress:

1. Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad
2. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
3. Michelle Monaghan, True Detective
4. Christine Baranski, The Good Wife
5. Emilia Clarke, Game of Thrones
6. Bellamy Young, Scandal
Spoilers: Christina Hendricks, Mad Men; Joanna Froggatt, Downton Abbey; Betsy Brandt, Breaking Bad

Gunn has this win locked again, no questions asked. Smith, Monaghan, and Baranski are locked for nominations too. The 5th and 6th slots are tricky. If Clarke got in based on her one major episode last year, I imagine she'll do the same this year. Scandal is a show voters like, so I wouldn't be surprised if Bellamy Young surprises here. I'm not predicting Hendricks with my decrease in Mad Men nominations prediction, but she's still in a good spot for a nomination series or not. Froggatt and Brandt would be surprises, but not a complete shock.


1. Who Goes There, True Detective
2. Felina, Breaking Bad
3. Ozymandias, Breaking Bad
4. Pilot, Masters of Sex
5. Farewell Daddy Blues, Boardwalk Empire

Who Goes There has the win locked thanks to the 6 minute tracking shot at the end of the episode. Felina is locked and the rest are near locked (I wouldn't be surprised if House of Cards replaced one of them).


1. Ozymandias, Breaking Bad
2. The Secret Fate of All Life, True Detective
3. Felina, Breaking Bad
4. Catherine, Masters of Sex
5. Behind the Red Door, The Americans

Ozymandias has this locked. It's widely regarded as one of Breaking Bad's best, if not the best episode of the show, and Breaking Bad has never won Writing (or Directing for that matter) in it's run. Secret Fate of All Life and Felina are locked, but Game of Thrones could easily be in the 4th or 5th slot.

Guest Actor:

1. Beau Bridges, Masters of Sex
2. Robert Morse, Mad Men
3. Dan Bucatinsky, Scandal
4. Michael Bowen, Breaking Bad
5. Pedro Pascal, Game of Thrones
6. Joe Morton, Scandal
Spoiler: Nathan Lane, The Good Wife

Anyone could win this, though Bridges and Morse are the frontrunners. I'm leaning towards Bridges since he's an Emmy favorite.

Guest Actress:

1. Allison Janney, Masters of Sex
2. Carrie Preston, The Good Wife
3. Jane Fonda, The Newsroom
4. Lisa Kudrow, Scandal
5. Margo Martindale, The Americans
6. Diana Rigg, Game of Thrones

Janney has this locked and the rest of the category is set in stone.

Total Major Nominations:

10 nominations- Breaking Bad
8 nominations- Modern Family
7 nominations- Fargo, Louie, Masters of Sex, Orange is the New Black
6 nominations- Dancing on the Edge, The Normal Heart, True Detective
5 nominations- American Horror Story: Coven, The Big Bang Theory, Brooklyn Nine-Nine, Game of Thrones, Scandal
4 nominations- The Americans, Sherlock: His Last Vow, The Trip to Bountiful, Veep
3 nominations- Clear History, The Good Wife, House of Cards, SNL
2 nominations- Boardwalk Empire, Downton Abbey, Girls, Luther, Mad Men, Mom, Nurse Jackie, Parks and Recreation, Silicon Valley, The White Queen 

Thanks for reading! As always, follow me on Twitter @ThemeParks4Life.

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