Sunday, August 24, 2014

2014 Emmy Predictions

The Emmys are on Monday, and man do we have a tough year! While there's a few categories that are locks, others are much harder, and in some cases there's no clear frontrunner. I feel confident in these predictions and I don't think I'll be changing them. I'll be listing the categories in the order they're being presented.

Comedy Supporting Actor

1. Tony Hale, Veep (Episode: Crate)
2. Fred Armisen, Portlandia (Episode: Pull-Out King)
3. Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family (Episode: Message Received)
4. Andre Braugher, Brooklyn Nine-Nine (Episode: Christmas)
5. Ty Burrell, Modern Family (Episode: Spring-a-Ding-Fling)
6. Adam Driver, Girls (Episode: Two Plane Rides)

You can make a case for everyone except Adam Driver. Right now I think Tony Hale is winning as he won last year (and has a much better episode this year) and Veep increased nominations. Fred Armisen was a WTF prediction, but he could pull off an upset considering there's no real frontrunner. Jesse Tyler Ferguson benefits from two episodes (and he's good in both from what people said) and Andre Braugher is an Academy favorite (even though this wasn't his best episode choice), so don't discount them.

Comedy Writing

1. Louie- So Did the Fat Lady
2. Veep- Special Relationship
3. Silicon Valley- Optimal Tip-to-Tip Efficientcy 
4. Orange is the New Black- I Wasn't Ready
5. Episodes- Episode 5

Any show except Episodes could win this. Louie is considered the frontrunner, and it should be. So Did the Fat Lady was one of the show's best episodes and deserves to win. Special Relationship is Veep's first nomination in the category, if Silicon wins anything it'll be here, and OITNB has it's pilot which the writing branch loves (even though the pilot was far from S1's best episode).

Comedy Supporting Actress

1. Kate Mulgrew, Orange is the New Black (Episode: Tit Punch)
2. Allison Janney, Mom (Episode: Estrogen and a Hearty Breakfast)
3. Julie Bowen, Modern Family (Episode: The Feud)
4. Mayim Bialik, The Big Bang Theory (Episode: The Indecision Amalgamation) 
5. Kate McKinnon, Saturday Night Live (Episode: Anna Kendrick)
6. Anna Chlumsky, Veep (Episode: Detroit)

This category is a tough race between Mulgrew and Janney, but I'm going to give the edge to Mulgrew here. The Academy fell in love with OITNB and this is her first nominations with around 40 years of working on TV. Janney just won at the Creatives for Drama Guest Actress and two wins in one year is very rare.

Comedy Directing

1. Orange is the New Black- Lesbian Request Denied
2. Modern Family- Las Vegas
3. Louie- Elevator Part 6
4. Silicon Valley- Minimum Viable Product
5. Glee- 100
6. Episodes- Episode 9

Any of the first four could win for various reasons. OITNB has Jodie Foster and was a huge hit with the Academy, Modern Family won this category last year with the same director, Louie is always a favorite in this category, and Silicon Valley has it's pilot. I'm going with OINTB largely because of Foster.

Comedy Actress

1. Julia Louis Dreyfus, Veep (Episode: Crate)
2. Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation (Episode: Recall Vote)
3. Melissa McCarthy, Mike and Molly (Episode: Mind Over Molly)
4. Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie (Episode: Super Greens)
5. Taylor Schilling, Orange is the New Black (Episode: The Chickening)
6. Lena Dunham, Girls (Episode: Beach House)

I don't see how JLD can lose this one, but if anyone beats her it'll be Poehler or McCarthy. Poehler has the drunk factor while McCarthy has the emotional factor (and she was able to get back in after not being nominated last year).

Comedy Actor

1. Ricky Gervais, Derek (Episode: Episode 6)
2. Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory (Episode: The Relationship Diremption)
3. Louis CK, Louie (Episode: Model)
4. William H Macy, Shameless (Episode: Lazarus)
5. Matt LeBlanc, Episodes (Episode: Episode 6 (on another note, how ironic two submissions have the same name))
6. Don Cheadle, House of Lies (Episode: Wreckage)

This is a race largely between Gervais and Parsons, but I think Gervais will win for a few reasons. For starters, Gervais wasn't on anyone's radar, and all of a sudden he gets nominated. Second, everyone says his episode has laughs and emotional moments (I'm still catching up so I'll probably watch it by Monday). Third, The Big Bang Theory was renewed for 3 more seasons, and I don't think voters are in a rush to reward him now that they have a clear alternative. Don't discount Louis CK either, though it's not likely he wins here.

Reality Competition Program

1. The Voice
2. The Amazing Race
3. Dancing With the Stars
4. Project Runway
5. Top Chef
6. So You Think You Can Dance

Not going to spend much time here, but The Voice will probably win again.

Movie/Miniseries Writing

1. The Normal Heart
2. Fargo
3. Luther
4. Treme
5. Sherlock: His Last Vow
6. American Horror Story: Coven

Tough call between Fargo and Normal Heart, but I think the latter will win this. It was much more memorable for it's writing than directing.

Movie/Miniseries Supporting Actress

1. Allison Tolman, Fargo
2. Julia Roberts, The Normal Heart
3. Kathy Bates, American Horror Story: Coven
4. Ellen Burstyn, Flowers in the Attic
5. Angela Bassett, American Horror Story: Coven
6. Frances Conroy, American Horror Story: Coven

I'm taking a risk here and predicting Tolman to win. The Movie/Mini categories more often than not go for movie stars, and Tolman isn't a star yet. Roberts' performance is much more showy and is an Oscar winner. Bates has a shot too, and we all know by now to never discount Burstyn.

Movie/Miniseries Supporting Actor

1. Matt Bomer, The Normal Heart
2. Colin Hanks, Fargo
3. Martin Freeman, Sherlock
4. Jim Parsons, The Normal Heart
5. Joe Mantello, The Normal Heart
6. Alfred Molina, The Normal Heart

Bomer is winning, no questions asked.

Movie/Miniseries Directing

1. Fargo- The Crocodile's Dilemma
2. Fargo- The Burdain's Ass
3. The Normal Heart
4. Muhammad Ali's Greatest Fight
5. Sherlock: His Last Vow
6. American Horror Story: Coven

One of the two Fargo episodes will win here, and it's tough as to which one. I'm going with Crocodile's Dilemma as it's the pilot.

Movie/Miniseries Actress

1. Cicely Tyson, The Trip to Bountiful
2. Jessica Lange, American Horror Story: Coven
3. Helena Bonham Carter, Burton and Taylor
4. Sarah Paulson, American Horror Story: Coven
5. Minnie Driver, Return to Zero
6. Kristen Wiig, The Spoils of Babylon

Tyson is winning, no questions asked.

Movie/Miniseries Actor

1. Martin Freeman, Fargo
2. Billy Bob Thorton, Fargo
3. Mark Ruffalo, The Normal Heart
4. Benedict Cumberbatch, Sherlock: His Last Vow
5. Idris Elba, Luther
6. Chiwetel Ejiofor, Dancing on the Edge

This one is pretty tricky. Thorton is considered the frontrunner, but a lot of people prefer Freeman and he has two nominations this year. It's possible that voters can't decide and go with Ruffalo, so this category is wide open.


1. The Normal Heart
2. The Trip to Bountiful
3. Sherlock: His Last Vow
4. Killing Kennedy
5. Muhammad Ali's Greatest Fight

Normal Heart is winning. This and Miniseries have locks.


1. Fargo
2. American Horror Story: Coven
3. Luther
4. Treme
5. The White Queen
6. Bonnie and Clyde


Variety Special Writing

1. Billy Crystal: 700 Sundays
2. The Tony Awards
3. The Golden Globes
4. The Beatles: The Night That Changed America
5. Sarah Silverman: We Are Miracles

Not spending much time here but everyone is prediction the Billy Crystal special so I'm going with that.

Variety Special Directing

1. The Sound of Music Live
2. The Beatles: The Night That Changed America
3. Kennedy Center Honors
4. The Academy Awards
5. The Tony Awards
6. Six by Sondheim

Again, not spending much time here but I imagine Sound of Music wins since it was a live musical.

Variety Series

1. The Colbert Report
2. The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon
3. The Daily Show
4. Jimmy Kimmel Live
5. Saturday Night Live
6. Real Time with Bill Maher

The Colbert Report will probably end up repeating, though considering how popular The Tonight Show is now it could win.

Drama Supporting Actor

1. Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad (Episode: Confessions)
2. Josh Charles, The Good Wife (Episode: Hitting the Fan)
3. Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones (Episode: The Laws of God and Men)
4. Jim Carter, Downton Abbey (Episode: Episode 1)
5. Jon Voight, Ray Donovan (Episode: Fite Nite)
6. Mandy Patinkin, Homeland (Episode: Gerontion)

This is a threeway race between Paul, Charles, and Dinklage, but it's really up in the air. Out of the three I think Dinklage has the least likely chance to win. Yes, Tyrion's final speech is one of the most memorable scenes of the past season, but that's the only noteworthy thing he does in his episode. The other two on the other hand are in their episode for quite a bit and this is voters last chance to award them. I'm going with Paul since he's on a show they love and if he wins he becomes the person with the most wins in Drama Supporting Actor.

Drama Writing

1. Breaking Bad- Ozymandias
2. True Detective- The Secret Fate of All Life
3. Breaking Bad- Felina
4. House of Cards- Chapter 14
5. Game of Thrones- The Children

Ozymandias is without a doubt the frontrunner. It's widely regarded as Breaking Bad's best episode and had everyone talking about it. That's not to discount Secret Fate and Felina either. Secret Fate is considered True Detective's best episode and could upset if there's a split in votes between the two Breaking Bad episodes. If voters want to give Vince Gilligan a solo award, I think it'll be in directing.

Drama Supporting Actress

1. Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad (Episode: Ozymandias)
2. Joanne Frogatt, Downton Abbey (Episode: Episode 4)
3. Christine Baranski, The Good Wife (Episode: The Last Call)
4. Lena Heady, Game of Thrones (Episode: The Lion and the Rose)
5. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey (Episode: Episode 8)
6. Christina Hendricks, Mad Men (Episode: The Strategy)

Anna Gunn is winning, no questions asked.

Drama Directing

1. True Detective- Who Goes There
2. Breaking Bad- Felina
3. Game of Thrones- Watchers on the Wall
4. Boardwalk Empire- Farewell Daddy Blues
5. House of Cards- Chapter 14
6. Downton Abbey- Episode 1

This one could go in any direction. Right now Who Goes There is the frontrunner thanks to the 6 minute tracking shot at the end, but they could give Vince Gilligan a solo award like I said earlier. There's also the chance Watchers on the Wall wins, and it wouldn't surprise me considering how grand that episode was.

Drama Actress

1. Claire Danes, Homeland (Episode: The Star)
2. Julianna Marguiles, The Good Wife (Episode: The Last Call)
3. Kerry Washington, Scandal (Episode: The Fluffer)
4. Lizzy Caplan, Masters of Sex (Episode: Pilot)
5. Michelle Dockery, Downton Abbey (Episode: Episode One)
6. Robin Wright, House of Cards (Episode: Chapter 26)

After Robin Wright screwed up her submission, this category became much harder to predict. Anyone could win this. A lot are expecting Marguiles to win, but I think Danes will pull an upset and get her third consecutive win. Even if Homeland sucked this season, The Star was a great episode with a great performance.

Drama Actor

1. Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad (Episode: Ozymandias)
2. Matthew McConaughey, True Detective (Episode: Form and Void)
3. Jeff Daniels, The Newsroom (Episode: Election Night, Part 2)
4. Woody Harrelson, True Detective (Episode: The Locked Room)
5. Kevin Spacey, House of Crds (Episode: Chapter 26)
6. Jon Hamm, Mad Men (Episode: The Strategy)

This is a two way race between Cranston and McConaughey. McConaughey has a good speech at the end of his episode, but like Dinklage, he doesn't do much for most of his episode (well he does, but the episode is almost all action). If Harrelson submitted Who Goes There or Secret Fate McConaughey could have easily won this, but both of them do nothing noteworthy in The Locked Room. Cranston on the other hand has plenty of great moments in his episode, and I finally think he'll get that 4th Emmy.

Comedy Series

1. Veep
2. Orange is the New Black
3. Louie
4. Modern Family
5. Silicon Valley
6. The Big Bang Theory

After Modern Family underperformed in nominations, many considered OITNB and Veep to be the frontrunners, and after the Creatives last week the majority of people are predicting OITNB to win. However, the Creative wins aren't convincing me to switch for two reasons. For starters, last year Modern Family didn't win anything at the Creatives and ended up winning Series. Secondly, dramadies have only won twice in Comedy: MASH in 1974 and Ally McBeal in 1999. OITNB had a fair share of controversy with category placement, and a lot of people consider it to be a full out drama. I'm going with Veep since it increased nominations and got a writing nomination. Louie and Modern Family are the darkhorses.

Drama Series

1. Breaking Bad
2. True Detective
3. House of Cards
4. Game of Thrones
5. Downton Abbey
6. Mad Men

Breaking Bad is winning this, no questions asked.

Thanks for reading!

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